2022 PGA Championship odds: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm start as favorites at Southern Hills


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The loaded field of golfers in the 2022 PGA Championship field does not feature a single-digit favorite to win the second major of the year, and there’s much value to be had past the marquee players on the board. Masters champion Scottie Scheffler and U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm headline the top of this board at 11-1, according to Caesars Sportsbook, but then it opens up more than the newly renovated Southern Hills fairways just beyond them.

Some familiar names trail just behind Scheffler and Rahm, but the ones that are most interesting are further back at 20-1 or longer. That’s where the value is in this field as the landscape there is dotted with either recently crowned major champions (Hideki Matsuyama), historically great players who may or may not be injured (Brooks Koepka) and players who are as hot as they’ve been in years (Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry).

It’s difficult to imagine anyone past the top 10-15 favorites winning this event, although 2021 champion Phil Mickelson was 200-1 to open that week. It would be extraordinarily improbable for that to happen again. Golf at the top is tough to break into right now. The best players are quite consistent, and they almost always show up for the biggest tournaments in the world (the last five major winners are Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Mickelson and Matsuyama).

Let’s take a look at the entire odds board via Caesars Sportsbook below. Be sure to check out a full slate of PGA Championship predictions and expert picks ahead of the second major of the year.

2022 PGA Championship odds

Favorites

  • Scottie Scheffler: 11-1
  • Jon Rahm: 11-1
  • Rory McIlroy: 14-1
  • Justin Thomas: 14-1
  • Collin Morikawa: 16-1
  • Dustin Johnson: 18-1

D.J. is interesting here. He’s having his worst putting season since 2011, but he’s been a menace at PGAs over the last few years with a pair of top-two finishes in his last three starts. McIlroy is also intriguing as he’s been playing terrific golf over the last few months, and I think a common narrative around him is that he’s always thrived at the PGA Championship. However, the reality is that Rory only has one top 10 since winning at Valhalla in 2014. For the number, Thomas is probably a better pick there.

  • Jordan Spieth: 20-1
  • Cameron Smith: 20-1
  • Patrick Cantlay: 20-1
  • Viktor Hovland: 22-1
  • Xander Schauffele: 22-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 28-1
  • Shane Lowry: 30-1
  • Will Zalatoris: 30-1
  • Brooks Koepka: 35-1
  • Joaquin Niemann: 35-1

This is the interesting group. Hovland could absolutely win this tournament, and I like his value at 22-1 more than what’s offered with McIlroy or Thomas at 14-1. I absolutely love Matsuyama, who’s coming off a top-three finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson and offers approach play that is perfectly suited to Southern Hills’ large greens with tiny landing areas. Lowry has the second-best strokes-gained number in his last 20 rounds coming into this event behind only Scheffler, who has won everything he’s looked at recently. Koepka is interesting because he has 15 top 10s in his last 25 majors, but he withdrew from last week’s Nelson. If he’s healthy, he should thrive, but I don’t know if he even knows if he’s healthy.

Who will win the PGA Championship, and which long shots will stun the golfing world?Visit SportsLine now to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

Sleepers

  • Sam Burns: 40-1
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick: 40-1
  • Daniel Berger: 50-1
  • Corey Conners: 50-1
  • Tony Finau: 50-1
  • Tiger Woods: 50-1
  • Max Homa: 55-1
  • Louis Oosthuizen: 60-1
  • Cameron Young: 65-1
  • Tyrrell Hatton: 65-1
  • Bryson DeChambeau: 65-1
  • Tommy Fleetwood: 65-1
  • Jason Day: 65-1
  • Keegan Bradley: 80-1
  • Adam Scott: 80-1
  • Abraham Ancer: 80-1
  • Billy Horschel: 80-1
  • Gary Woodland: 90-1
  • Patrick Reed: 90-1
  • Jason Kokrak: 90-1

Burns, Finau, Homa and Bradley stand out here. Homa has been among the best iron players in the world over his last 20 rounds, and Burns is situated between McIlroy and Cantlay when it comes to that category, too. Reed should be intriguing here because of how difficult it will be to get up and down on these revamped greens, but he’s been nearly the worst in this field from tee to green recently and can’t be trusted enough in that category to accentuate the one where he’s generationally good.

Everyone else

  • Talor Gooch: 100-1
  • Si Woo Kim: 100-1
  • Justin Rose: 100-1
  • Harold Varner III: 100-1
  • Marc Leishman: 100-1
  • Seamus Power: 100-1
  • Russell Henley: 100-1
  • Sergio Garcia: 100-1
  • Webb Simpson: 100-1
  • Thomas Pieters: 125-1
  • Matthew Wolff: 125-1
  • Aaron Wise: 125-1
  • Sebastian Munoz: 125-1
  • Alex Noren: 125-1
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout: 125-1
  • Maverick McNealy: 125-1
  • Cameron Champ: 125-1
  • Rickie Fowler: 150-1
  • Sepp Straka: 150-1
  • Jhonattan Vegas: 150-1
  • Charl Schwartzel: 150-1
  • Bubba Watson: 150-1
  • Davis Riley: 150-1
  • Erik Van Rooyen: 150-1
  • K.H. Lee: 150-1
  • Tom Hoge: 150-1
  • Brian Harman: 150-1
  • Adam Hadwin: 150-1
  • Luke List: 150-1
  • Keith Mitchell: 150-1
  • Matt Kuchar: 150-1
  • Kevin Na: 175-1
  • Mito Pereira: 200-1
  • Kevin Kisner: 200-1
  • Cameron Davis: 200-1
  • Sam Horsfield: 200-1
  • Chris Kirk: 200-1
  • Russell Knox: 200-1
  • Bernd Weisberger: 200-1
  • Joel Dahmen: 200-1
  • Robert MacIntyre: 200-1
  • Ryan Palmer: 200-1

When you get this far down, you’re simply looking for win equity (such as, perhaps, Phil Mickelson in 2021?). The players who provide that this week are Russell Henley (100-1), Thomas Pieters (125-1), Matthew Wolff (125-1) and Cameron Champ (125-1). You could possibly talk me into another name or two, but those are the ones that stand out this far down the board.


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